1 minute read / June 17, 2026
Every few years, the tropical Pacific Ocean shifts between two opposite states. In the warm phase, known as El Niño, a large patch of ocean surface becomes unusually warm. In the cool phase, La Niña, that same region turns unusually cold.
Based on June 2026 seasonal climate forecasts, contributing to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, an El Niño occurrence this year is virtually certain.
Looking at the potential evolution in the coming months, it has a very high likelihood of being very strong and even turning into an unprecedented event.
Given such forecasts, a new JRC report explores the plausible scenarios of El Niño evolution, together with its effects on the global climate, food prices, exposed people, displacement, and humanitarian risks.
As the impacts of the El Niño will amplify and aggravate existing vulnerabilities, crises, and conflicts, to assess whether it could lead to humanitarian crises, the report uses INFORM Warning. This is a new tool combining hazard forecasts with data on conflict, food insecurity, displacement, and economic conditions to generate country-level risk scores.
